For those folks that are interested, FanGraphs released Dan Szymborski’s 2016 ZiPS projections for the Brewers on Friday.
I look forward to these projections each year, not because the numbers will necessarily be what each player puts up, but more so as a point of reference to look back on and see if players have met or exceeded these preseason expectations.
There is loads of information to take in at the link and while much of the focus is on the parent club, there is still plenty of info on Milwaukee’s top minor league prospects as well. Here is a quick breakdown of some of those Brewers prospects on the list and their projected results for the upcoming 2016 season.
Orlando Arcia – The Orlando Arcia fan club continues to grow and he already rates as having the fourth highest zWAR for Milwaukee among offensive players, trailing only Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana. Arcia’s 2016 projections include a .258 average with 31 doubles and 10 home runs.
Brett Phillips – Concerns about inflated power numbers in the California League are alleviated some with these projections as Phillips is expected to bounce back to the tune of 27 doubles, 9 triples and 14 home runs in 2016. His zWAR is the seventh highest for Brewers hitters at 1.5.
Tyrone Taylor – After putting up a solid, though unspectacular season in 2015, more of the same is projected for Taylor in 2016. The 22-year-old outfielder is projected for a .250 average with 26 doubles, 6 home runs and 50 runs batted in.
Clint Coulter – Coulter ranks higher than I would have thought, even drawing a comp to Michael Cuddyer. The average is expected to remain low with a 2016 projection of just .236 but 29 doubles and 22 home runs would certainly help to re-establish his prospect status.
Michael Reed – The 23-year-old Reed, who made his major league debut last September, is projected to hit .231 with a .318 on base percentage to go along with 25 doubles with 19 stolen bases and 54 runs scored.
Victor Roache – Roache has tremendous raw power, but the question remains if he will make enough contact to tap into that power. According to these projections, don’t expect to see him do so in 2016. While he’s down for 22 home runs, his projected K% of 40.7 is dead last among all Brewers.
Josh Hader – The 22-year-old Hader has been getting a lot of helium lately and he’s projected to notch a strikeout per inning in 2016, posting a 4.47 earned run average with a zWAR of 0.7.
Jorge Lopez – Lopez enjoyed a breakout season last year at Double-A Biloxi, but according to his 2016 FiPS, he’s expected to come back down to earth a bit. Lopez is projected for a 5.28 ERA with 3.65 BB/9.
Adrian Houser – Houser’s projected zWAR is one of the lowest among Brewers pitchers at -0.5. They have him down for a 5.37 ERA in 107.3 innings of work with a BABIP of .299.